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Contents

I. History, Concepts, and Norms

1. Ripples on the Great Sea of Life: A Brief History of Existential Risk Studies

SJ Beard and Emile P. Torres

2. Democratising Risk: In Search of a Methodology to Study Existential Risk

Carla Zoe Cremer and Luke Kemp

3. Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks

Shahar Avin, Bonnie C. Wintle, Julius Weitzdörfer, Seán S. Ó hÉigeartaigh, William J. Sutherland and Martin J. Rees

4. Governing Boring Apocalypses: A New Typology of Existential Vulnerabilities and Exposures for Existential Risk Research

Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Cedervall Lauta and Matthijs Michiel Maas

5. Existential Risk, Creativity and Well-Adapted Science

II. Methods, Tools, and Approaches

6. An Analysis and Evaluation of Methods Currently Used to Quantify the Likelihood of Existential Hazards

SJ Beard, Thomas Rowe and James Fox

7. Scanning Horizons in Research, Policy and Practice

Bonnie C. Wintle, Mahlo N. C. Kennicutt II and William J. Sutherland

8. Exploring Artificial Intelligence Futures

9. Accumulating Evidence Using Crowdsourcing and Machine Learning: A Living Bibliography About Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk

Gorm E. Shackelford, Luke Kemp, Catherine Rhodes, et al.

10. The Mortality of States (MOROS) Dataset

11. Enabling the Participatory Exploration of Alternative Futures With ParEvo

Rick Davies, SJ Beard, Tom Hobson and Lara Mani

III. Risk Drivers and Impacts

12. Global Catastrophic Risk From Low Magnitude Volcanic Eruptions

Lara Mani, Asaf Tzachor and Paul Cole

13. Re-Framing the Threat of Global Warming: An Empirical Causal Loop Diagram of Climate Change, Food Insecurity and Societal Collapse

C. E. Richards, R. C. Lupton and J. M. Allwood

14. Existential Change: Lesson from Climate Change for Existential Risk

SJ Beard and Luke Kemp

15. A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Catastrophic Risk

Aaron Tang and Luke Kemp

16. Bioengineering Horizon Scan 2020

Luke Kemp, Laura Adam, Christian R Boehm, et al.

17. Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI

Carla Zoe Cremer and Jess Whittlestone

IV. Policy, Institutions, and Impacts

18. Pathways to Linking Science and Policy in Global Risk

Clarissa Rios Rojas, Catherine Richards, Catherine Rhodes and Paul Ingram

19. The Cartography of Global Catastrophic Governance

Catherine Rhodes and Luke Kemp

20. The Stepping Stones Approach to Nuclear Disarmament Diplomacy

21. It Takes a Village: The Shared Responsibility of “Raising” an Autonomous Weapon

Amritha Jayanti and Shahar Avin

22. Representation of Future Generations in United Kingdom Policy-Making

Natalie Jones, Mark O’Brien and Thomas Ryan

23. Financing Our Final Hour

Luke Kemp, Haydn Belfield, Ellen Quigley, Julius Weitzdörfer and SJ Beard

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